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Every state

The whole country is closer than you think.

This is where every state lands when the question is asked the way a ballot asks it: calm, binary, and peaceful. Twenty-five states reach a majority, and most of the rest land within striking distance. The raw, understated YouGov poll is lower. Here's how we adjust it.

Alabama: 52% on a fair ballotAlaska: 66% on a fair ballotArizona: 48% on a fair ballotColorado: 51% on a fair ballotFlorida: 54% on a fair ballotGeorgia: 55% on a fair ballotIndiana: 54% on a fair ballotKansas: 52% on a fair ballotMaine: 49% on a fair ballotMassachusetts: 44% on a fair ballotMinnesota: 43% on a fair ballotNew Jersey: 46% on a fair ballotNorth Carolina: 47% on a fair ballotNorth Dakota: not measuredOklahoma: 58% on a fair ballotPennsylvania: 46% on a fair ballotSouth Dakota: not measuredTexas: 61% on a fair ballotWyoming: not measuredConnecticut: 39% on a fair ballotMissouri: 46% on a fair ballotWest Virginia: 55% on a fair ballotIllinois: 51% on a fair ballotNew Mexico: 49% on a fair ballotArkansas: 53% on a fair ballotCalifornia: 59% on a fair ballotDelaware: 50% on a fair ballotHawaii: 50% on a fair ballotIowa: 46% on a fair ballotKentucky: 49% on a fair ballotMaryland: 45% on a fair ballotMichigan: 45% on a fair ballotMississippi: 49% on a fair ballotMontana: 54% on a fair ballotNew Hampshire: 45% on a fair ballotNew York: 58% on a fair ballotOhio: 44% on a fair ballotOregon: 47% on a fair ballotTennessee: 51% on a fair ballotUtah: 46% on a fair ballotVirginia: 49% on a fair ballotWashington: 54% on a fair ballotWisconsin: 45% on a fair ballotNebraska: 55% on a fair ballotSouth Carolina: 49% on a fair ballotIdaho: 50% on a fair ballotNevada: 51% on a fair ballotVermont: not measuredLouisiana: 53% on a fair ballotRhode Island: 44% on a fair ballot
On a fair ballot39%50% majority66%Organizing nowOrganized beforeHover a state, or pick one below.

Ranked · on a fair ballot

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1Alaska66%2Texas61%3California59%4New York58%5Oklahoma58%6Georgia55%7Nebraska55%8West Virginia55%9Florida54%10Indiana54%11Montana54%12Washington54%13Arkansas53%14Louisiana53%15Alabama52%16Kansas52%17Colorado51%18Illinois51%19Nevada51%20Tennessee51%21Delaware50%22Hawaii50%23Idaho50%24Kentucky49%25Maine49%26Mississippi49%27New Mexico49%28South Carolina49%29Virginia49%30Arizona48%31North Carolina47%32Oregon47%33Iowa46%34Missouri46%35New Jersey46%36Pennsylvania46%37Utah46%38Maryland45%39Michigan45%40New Hampshire45%41Wisconsin45%42Massachusetts44%43Ohio44%44Rhode Island44%45Minnesota43%46Connecticut39%

Not measured in 2024, too small a sample to publish, but the case is the same: North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, Wyoming.